Rising Concerns: Recent Highlights Troubling Trends

The Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) administered by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) assesses the knowledge and skills of 15-year-old students globally. It measures proficiency in mathematics, reading, and science, and offers insights into how well students can apply that knowledge to real-world challenges. The 2022 findings show some alarming results for the United States. The data show a notable decline in average mathematics scores compared to 2018. While reading and science scores remained relatively stable, mathematics scores dropped by 13 points. Student achievement declined globally because of the pandemic, but the downward trend in mathematics in the United States is particularly troubling. According to the OECD, the “2022 results are among the lowest ever measured by PISA in mathematics,” and Kentucky is not an outlier. Among the 50 states, Kentucky ranks 41 in 8th grade math proficiency. These data are worse for the most disadvantaged students in the United States. Advantaged students outperformed their disadvantaged counterparts by 102 points in mathematics, mirroring the OECD average gap. Though gaps in performance in mathematics exists across all participating countries, countries like Canada and Ireland demonstrate it is possible to positively impact that trend. Beyond academic performance, PISA results provide insights into students’ well-being and sense of belonging. While 70% of U.S. students reported they felt a sense of belonging at school, a concerning 22% reported feeling lonely and 24% felt like outsiders. In addition, there is a substantial decline in parental engagement between 2018 and 2022. Only 31% of students attended schools where at least half of the families discussed their child’s progress with teachers on their own initiative, compared to 43% in 2018. Not surprisingly, countries showing positive trends in parental involvement between 2018 and 2022 tended to show more stable or improved performance in mathematics. Despite national conversations about the power of a positive school environment and the impact of parent engagement, these figures highlight persistent challenges in making this a reality. These issues are further exacerbated by teacher shortages. In 2018, 26% of students in the United States attended schools where teacher shortages impacted instruction. That number rose to a staggering 42% in 2022. Likewise, in 2018, 13% of students in the United States attended schools where inadequate or poorly qualified teaching staff impacted instruction. That number rose to 18% in 2022. According to the Kentucky Public School Employee Staff Shortages report, most Kentucky superintendents and principals express challenges in finding qualified candidates for positions, citing a decline in those completing teacher preparation programs. Emergency teaching certificates have doubled from 2020 to 2023, and administrators note that teacher salary and benefits cannot compete with private industry jobs. These data do not paint a pretty picture for our students nor the future of our economy. Kentucky must focus policy and investment priorities on improving core mathematics instruction, as well as teacher recruitment, preparation, and retention. We cannot afford to continue the downward trend in mathematics performance. The integration of statistical reasoning, data literacy, and data science is crucial for present and future careers. But we must also attend to the enabling conditions that improve parent involvement and the students’ sense of belonging and well-being. We need to leverage evidence-based models that bring families, educators, and community partners together. These assets should be working in an aligned and coherent way to address systemic issues that limit opportunities for all students, particularly those who are most disadvantaged. As the state works on large-scale policy levers and improved resources for our education system, we need hyper-local decision-making that can rapidly respond to the unique needs of each community. And we need to harness a sense of urgency. Our future economy is dependent on it and our children deserve it.