Access to Advanced Coursework: Leading Indicators

What Are Leading Indicators and Why Do They Matter?  

Lagging indicators - like graduation rates - reflect past performance. Leading indicators - such as daily attendance rates - predict future performance. They offer early insights and support proactive decision-making. Analyzing leading indicators enables educators to target interventions for underperforming students, ensuring equitable support based on demographic and socioeconomic factors to mitigate academic risks and improve outcomes.

Access to advanced coursework opportunities in high school fosters greater student engagement, decreased absenteeism, and higher graduation ratesⁱ. Research supports the transformative impact of programs like dual credit and Advanced Placement (AP) on college outcomes, particularly for underrepresented studentsⁱⁱ. However, disparities persist in access and outcomes, underscoring the need for schools to maintain rigorous standards and implement supportive strategies to ensure equal opportunities for all students. Much like advanced coursework, high-quality career and technical education (CTE) has also proven to drive college and career readinessⁱⁱⁱ. In addition to these high school courses, early advanced coursework opportunities like gifted talented programs in elementary school and algebra courses in 8^th grade, both serve as gatekeepers to high school-level courses^iv.

The following leading indicators offer valuable insights into which Kentucky students are likely to have increased access to advanced coursework during their high school years:

• Elementary school gifted and talented or other advanced learning participation rate  
• Middle school 8^th-grade Algebra I access, participation rate, and success  
• The number of students and students of underrepresented backgrounds identified for advanced coursework potential  
• Advanced coursework enrollment and success  

Elementary School Gifted and Talented or Other Advanced Learning Participation Rate: What Is It and Why Does It Matter?

Kentucky^v offers gifted education services for identified students across all grade levels. Primary years K-3 are grouped into high-potential learners, or Primary Talent Pool (PTP) program, for early interventions to help nurture and develop talents. Primary students grades 4-12 are screened and selected as high-potential learners and students in grades 4-12 are formally identified for services in areas such as general intellectual aptitude, specific academic aptitude, creative or divergent thinking, psychosocial or leadership skills, and visual or performing arts.Enrollment in gifted and talented (GT) programs in elementary school can serve as a reliable predictor of enrollment in advanced learning tracks during middle and high school.

Enrollment in gifted and talented (GT) programs in elementary school can serve as a reliable predictor of enrollment in advanced learning tracks during middle and high school.

Other advanced learning opportunities include: :

• “Accelerating learning”, which allows educators to address the learning needs of students by identifying potential learning gaps or struggles early on and ensuring students stay on-track;
• Early literacy and numeracy interventions, targeted support programs on developing foundational skills;
• Accelerated Reader Programs that help students improve reading comprehension and vocabulary skills at their own pace;
• Enrichment Clubs and activities, such as STEM programs and coding clubs to provide early career exploration and learning;
• And subject acceleration, allowing students to jump grade levels for specific subjects, which requires flexible scheduling, teacher collaboration, and parent involvement.

Why Does It Matter?

Identifying students for advanced learning opportunities from the earliest stages of their education is important. The foundational years play a pivotal role in shaping students' academic trajectories, social development, and cognitive abilities. Yet, this selection task is complex, particularly for underrepresented minorities and economically disadvantaged students. Many of these students face initial hurdles due to limited access to rigorous educational experiences, compounded by disparities in kindergarten readiness, where they frequently start behind their peers^vi.

Once students are placed on different learning tracks, disparities often widen. Advanced learners benefit from enriched opportunities and specialized programs, further deepening the gap between them and their peers. This growing discrepancy presents a significant challenge for disadvantaged students, hindering their ability to catch up and compete on equal footing. It is therefore important to ensure that the criteria for selection into any gifted and talented or advanced learning program are equitable and inclusive, particularly for underrepresented or disadvantaged students^vii. Identifying students for advanced learning opportunities at an early stage is crucial for addressing disparities and ensuring equitable access to educational opportunities through high school and beyond.

Middle School 8^th-grade Algebra I Access, Participation Rate, and Success: What Is It and Why Does It Matter?

The specific curriculum for 8th-grade algebra in Kentucky can vary slightly between school districts and individual schools, but generally, it covers fundamental algebraic concepts like:

• Expressions and Equations: Students learn to work with algebraic expressions, including simplifying, evaluating, and solving equations and inequalities. They may also learn about properties of operations.
• Linear Functions: Introduction to linear functions, including graphing linear equations, finding slopes, and understanding the relationship between equations, graphs, and tables.
• Systems of Equations: Solving systems of linear equations using various methods such as graphing, substitution, and elimination.
• Exponents and Radicals: Understanding and applying properties of exponents and roots, including simplifying expressions with exponents and radicals.
• Polynomials: Operations with polynomials, including addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division. Students may also learn about factoring polynomials.
• Rational Expressions: Simplifying and performing operations with rational expressions, including addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division.
• Functions: Introduction to the concept of functions, including function notation, evaluating functions, and understanding the relationship between inputs and outputs.
• Coordinate Geometry: Graphing and interpreting linear equations and inequalities on the coordinate plane.
• Data Analysis: Basic concepts of data analysis and statistics, including interpreting graphs, calculating measures of central tendency, and understanding basic probability concepts.

Not all Kentucky middle schools nor all school districts offer Algebra I in middle school. The US Department of Education tracks the schools and districts that offers Algebra I by using the Civil Rights Data Collection of the 2015–2016 school year.

Why Does It Matter?

Algebra is the foundation for students’ future success^viii in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) courses. It is a gatekeeper course. Algebra I tends to be a prerequisite for advancing to higher-level mathematics and science courses. Taking it by 8th-grade allows a student to access more advanced high school courses and Kentucky STEM academies. It is also known as a gateway to college^ix. Success in this course significantly increases one’s likelihood of attending college. Even if a student does not pass the course, the experience provides exposure to demanding math concepts. Opting out of it altogether drastically diminishes one’s prospects of even pursuing higher education.  

To increase the number of students prepared for advanced STEM coursework in high school, we must increase the participation and success rate in 8^th-grade algebra and other accelerated math courses. This is particularly true for students in Kentucky who have been traditionally underrepresented in advanced coursework. Advance Kentucky’s Access to Algebra (A2A)^x program has found that students in middle school can succeed at elevated levels if given the opportunity to do so, which highlights the importance of providing more students with rigorous coursework and the expectation to succeed.

The number of students and students of underrepresented backgrounds identified for advanced coursework potential: What Is It and Why Does It Matter?

Schools should consider utilizing multiple factors – and not just one - to identify students for advanced coursework. This can help increase both the number of students and the number of students from underrepresented backgrounds to enroll in advanced courses.Examples of numerous factors include:

• AP Potential^xi is a free, online tool provided by the College Board that allows schools to generate rosters of students who are likely to score a 3 or higher on a given AP Exam based on their performance on the PSAT/NMSQT, PSAT 8/9, PSAT 10, or SAT. Research shows that there is a stronger correlation between SAT Suite scores and AP Exam results versus the more traditional factors such as high school grades and grades in same-discipline coursework. The AP Potential tool can also be used to flag students for other^xii advanced coursework, such as dual credit.
• Other predictive tools, such as employing existing databases to analyze students’ historical performance and identify potential candidates for advanced courses.
• Academic performance metrics, such as grades in relevant coursework and standardized test scores to assess academic readiness.
• Students' motivation and interest, assessing students’ engagement for the subject matter, their eagerness to take on challenging coursework, and involvement in activities related to the subject area, which can indicate interest and commitment.  
• Staff and teacher recommendations and feedback from relevant coursework.
• Alternative assessments, such as students’ performance on challenging assignments or projects, work-based learning programs, and other assessments on skills and potential beyond standardized test scores and grades.  

Why Does It Matter?

Utilizing data analytics to identify and select students for advanced coursework helps schools increase access to these courses. Employing multiple factors can help schools identify additional students, especially underrepresented students, and build a roster of students who have demonstrated potential early in their high school careers. This allows counselors, administrators, teachers, students, and parents to communicate about the student’s potential for advanced coursework.

Using data to identify students with advanced coursework potential allows districts, schools, and teachers to overcome intentional and unintentional biases^xiii in selection and enrollment decisions. Tracking students with advanced coursework potential can help expand access to these opportunities to a wider range of students. It is also a leading indicator of which students are most likely to successfully complete advanced coursework and test proficiently.

Advanced coursework enrollment and success: What Is It and Why Does It Matter?

These indicators provide insights into whether students have access to advanced coursework and if so, which courses, as well as whether they successfully completed these courses by demonstrating proficiency through examinations. In the case of Advanced Placement (AP) coursework, students achieving a score of 3 or higher are considered proficient, although the acceptance of these scores varies amongst post-secondary institutions. Similarly, students enrolled in dual credit programs must attain a passing grade from the institution offering the course.

Why Does It Matter?

These leading indicators are crucial as they provide a lens to assess a student's readiness for and potential success in higher education. One of the most powerful predictors of a student's likelihood to enroll in and succeed in higher education is whether they earned postsecondary credit while in high school, through completion of a dual enrollment course, passage of an Advanced Placement (AP) or International Baccalaureate (IB) assessment or earning an industry-recognized credential with labor market value.^xiv Furthermore, comprehensive data on advanced coursework enrollment and success enable educators and policymakers to identify areas of strength and improvement within educational systems. In addition, analyses of these indicators disaggregated by demographics allow institutions to understand and address equity issues effectively by facilitating targeted interventions to enhance student outcomes. This approach further promotes equitable access to advanced educational opportunities, especially for underrepresented students.

Theory of Action

We believe, at a minimum, that

IF students have access to advanced content in elementary school, such as gifted and talented programs or advanced learning opportunities,

AND IF students participate and successfully complete 8^th grade algebra and other accelerated programs in middle school,

AND IF we recruit and train qualified teachers to teach high-quality advanced coursework in high school,

AND IF students have access to high-quality advanced coursework in high school  

AND IF students have access to peer mentors and targeted supports, such as summer or after-school, in-course tutoring or study sessions,

THEN Kentucky high school students will have access to advanced coursework from K-12, complete college-level coursework in high school, test proficiently in advanced coursework exams, and gain a jump-start to post-secondary and career endeavors.