What Are Lagging Indicators and Why Do They Matter?

Lagging indicators are outcomes connected to major goals and desired results - like graduation rates. They tell us the story of what has happened in the past. They are useful for understanding how the system performs. By evaluating historical data, schools and districts can determine the effectiveness of past strategies, measure the impact of actions or interventions, and communicate transparently with stakeholders about their performance.

The following lagging indicators are signals of a meaningful high school diploma:  

• 4-Year High School Graduation Rate

• College-Going Rate

• Postsecondary Degree Attainment

• Workforce Participation Rate

4-Year High School Graduation Rate: What Is It and Why Does It Matter?

Graduation rate represents the proportion of students who successfully meet all criteria to obtain a high school diploma in Kentucky, in comparison to the entire group of students who started ninth grade together. The “4-year adjusted cohort graduation rate” represents the percentage of students who successfully graduate high school within four (4) years. It accounts for any students who transferred in or out, moved to another country, or passed away during that time frameⁱ.

Why Does It Matter?

Graduating from high school is linked to several measures of well-being later in life. Compared with people who dropped out of high school, high school graduates have higher wages, better physical health outcomes, engage in healthier behaviors, and are less likely to be unemployedⁱⁱ.

The consequences of not obtaining a high school diploma are significant. Relative to those with a high school degree, people who dropped out of high school are less likely to be employed, less likely to have health insurance through their job, and have lower annual earningsⁱⁱⁱ. A high school graduate with no further schooling is estimated to have a lifetime income of $260,000 greater than someone who dropped out of high school^iv. High school graduation is also associated with a reduced likelihood of incarceration and arrest^v.

Where to Find the Data

District-level graduation data can be found in the Kentucky School Report Card and Prichard Committee Community Profiles. As of the 2022-2023 school year, Kentucky’s high school graduation rate was 91.4%.  

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If We Do Nothing

If Kentucky makes no changes, the state’s high school graduation rate is likely to continue to plateau.

Figure 1

4-Year High School Graduation Rates in Kentucky: Historical Data and Forecast Trend

Source: Kentucky Department of Education (KDE) School Report Card

KDE releases 2022-2023 Kentucky School Report Card data – Kentucky Teacher

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College-Going Rate: What Is It and Why Does It Matter?

The college-going rate is the percent of recent Kentucky high school graduates who attend any in-state or out-of-state postsecondary institution in the summer, fall or spring following high school graduation.

In addition to high school graduates going directly into postsecondary education, it's important to recognize and support other transition pathways. These pathways include students joining the military, entering the workforce in positions with wages that can support a family, or participating in registered apprenticeships^vi.  

Why Does It Matter?

The college-going rate is a critical indicator of a community's ability to thrive economically, socially, and culturally. It impacts factors such as workforce competitiveness, innovation, social mobility, civic engagement, health, and cultural enrichment. College-educated individuals typically earn higher incomes, contribute more to taxes, and drive local consumer spending that stimulates economic development. In today’s knowledge-driven economy, a higher college-going rate strengthens a skilled workforce and attracts businesses seeking educated talent. College-educated individuals are more likely to engage in civic activities, such as voting and volunteering, and they tend to have better health outcomes overall^vii.

Where to Find the Data

As of the 2022-2023 school year, Kentucky’s college-going rate was 52%.  

Figure 2

Kentucky’s College-Going Rate

Source: Kentucky Center for Statistics (KY STATS)

District-level college-going rate data can be found in the Kentucky School Report Card and Prichard Committee Community Profiles.

If We Do Nothing

If Kentucky makes no changes, the state’s college-going rate is likely to continue to trend downward.

Figure 3

College-Going Rates in Kentucky: Historical Data and Forecast Trend

Source: Kentucky Department of Education (KDE) School Report Card

KYSTATS High School Feedback Report

For additional Meaningful Diploma trajectories, download our Meaningful Diploma Outcome Data Forecast Trajectory Report.

Postsecondary Degree Attainment: What Is It and Why Does It Matter?

The Prichard Committee defines postsecondary degree attainment as the number of Kentucky residents between the ages of 25 and 64 with an associate degree or higher.  

It is important to note that short-term credentials are an essential part of education beyond high school, but the value of these credentials should be carefully examined. These include certificates and industry-recognized certifications. Data about these credentials are not yet collected at the county level nor disaggregated by race and ethnicity, so they are omitted from state totals in the chart below.

Why Does It Matter?

Attaining a postsecondary credential is the most reliable route to economic advancement. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, lessons from the 2008 economic downturn show that individuals with higher educational qualifications not only experienced fewer job losses during the recession's aftermath, but also quickly regained pre-recession income levels compared to those without higher education qualifications. Since 2016, workers with at least some postsecondary education make up 65% of the total employment in the United States. Bachelor’s degree holders now earn 57% of all wages^viii. Furthermore, occupations requiring minimal education are in rapid decline. From 2010 to 2016, America’s graduate degree holders gained 3.8 million jobs, bachelors degree holders gained 4.7 million jobs, and associate degree holders gained 3.1 million jobs, compared to workers with a high school diploma or less, who added only 80,000 jobs^ix.

Where to Find the Data

As of 2022, 39.5% of Kentuckians ages 25-64 held an associate degree or higher.  

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If We Do Nothing

If Kentucky makes no changes, the state’s postsecondary degree attainment rates are likely to continue to trend upward. However, it is important to note that Kentucky’s overall postsecondary degree attainment levels may include residents from other states that are not Kentucky high school graduates. While more people that attend postsecondary institutions in Kentucky are graduating, fewer Kentucky high school graduates are enrolling in college. For postsecondary degree attainment of Kentucky high school graduates, visit the Kentucky Center for Statistics (KY STATS) High School Feedback Report College Enrollment and Outcomes

Figure 4

Postsecondary Degree Attainment in Kentucky – Associate Degree or Above: Historical Data and Forecast Trend

Source: Lumina Foundation A Stronger Nation Report

For additional Meaningful Diploma trajectories, download our Meaningful Diploma Outcome Data Forecast Trajectory Report.

Figure 5

Kentucky Postsecondary Degree Attainment, by Attainment Level, 2018-2022

Source: Lumina Foundation's A Stronger Nation Report.

County-level postsecondary degree attainment data (excluding certificates and industry-recognized certifications) can be found in the Prichard Committee Community Profiles.  

Workforce Participation Rate: What Is It and Why Does It Matter?

Workforce participation rate is the share of the adult population age 16 or older that is either employed or unemployed and looking for work. Active-duty military and institutionalized individuals are excluded.  

Why Does It Matter?

The Kentucky Chamber of Commerce states: “Simply put, a strong workforce is a sign of a strong economy.”  

A strong workforce means^x:

• Individuals have jobs and are working to support themselves and their families, purchase goods and services, and pay taxes.  

• Unemployed individuals are actively applying for jobs, and the job market is strong enough to provide ample opportunities to keep people actively looking for employment until they find a good fit.  

• Employers can find workers to meet their customers' demands and grow their businesses.  

• Businesses are incentivized to locate, relocate, and expand in our state.

A weak workforce, on the other hand, means quite the opposite^xi:

• Fewer individuals have gainful employment and can support themselves and their families.  

• Fewer individuals are actively looking for work.  

• Economic productivity and consumer satisfaction drop as employers struggle to find staff, grow their businesses, and fail to meet demand.  

• New businesses and job opportunities bypass areas with weak workforces for areas where they are more likely to find talented workers.  

Additionally, research suggests that early entry into the workforce for young people ages 16 to 24 leads to later positive economic and life outcomes. The Measure of America’s Two Futures: The Economic Case for Keeping Youth on Track report^xii indicates that by the time youth aged 16-24 reach their thirties, those who were engaged in work or education during their teenage and young adult years earn $31,000 more annually. Additionally, they are 45% more likely to own a home, 42% more likely to be employed, and 52% more likely to report excellent or good health compared to those who had been disconnected from school and work during their youth^xiii.

Where to Find the Data

State-level workforce participation data can be found on the Federal Reserve Economic Data website which uses United States Census Bureau data. County-level employment and unemployment data can be found on the Kentucky Center for Statistics Labor Force and Unemployment webpage.

Fewer adults in Kentucky participate in the workforce than in almost any other state in the nation^xiv.

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Figure 6

U.S. and Kentucky Workforce Participation Rate, 2001-2021

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Chart courtesy of Kentucky Chamber of Commerce report.

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If We Do Nothing

If Kentucky makes no changes, the state’s workforce participation rate is likely to continue to trend downward.

Figure 7

Workforce Participation Rate in Kentucky: Historical Data and Forecast Trend

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

For additional Meaningful Diploma trajectories, download our Meaningful Diploma Outcome Data Forecast Trajectory Report.