Meaningful Diploma Toolbox: Leading Indicators

What Are Leading Indicators and Why Do They Matter?

Lagging indicators - like graduation rates - reflect past performance. Leading indicators - such as daily attendance rates - predict future performance. They offer early insights and support proactive decision-making. Analyzing leading indicators enables educators to target interventions for underperforming students, ensuring equitable support based on demographic and socioeconomic factors to mitigate academic risks and improve outcomes.

The following leading indicators are signals of a high school student’s academic progress and completion; social, emotional, and physical well-being; and postsecondary and career readiness:

• 9^th Grade On-Track
• Education and Career Navigation Competencies
• Durable Skills Competencies

9^th Grade On-Track: What Is It and Why Does It Matter?

Grade 9 students are on track to graduate high school in four years, enroll in postsecondary education, and succeed in their first year of postsecondary education. While some states define 9^th grade on track in different ways, adopted metrics may include:

• Percentage of students in grade 9 with a GPA of 3.0 or higher.
• No Ds or Fs in English or Math.
• Attendance more than 90 percentⁱ
• No in-school or out-of-school suspensions or expulsions.
• Potential for advanced coursework and advanced coursework completionⁱⁱ.

Why Does It Matter

“To build a strong foundation for postsecondary success, it is essential that students start high school on the right foot” (Education Strategy Group, LevelUp, 2023). Grade 9 is a foundational year for students. It sets the stage for on-time high school graduation and postsecondary education and early workforce entry.  

Several research studies note that GPA serves as a more reliable indicator of success in high school and postsecondary education and is less biased than standardized test scores¹. In addition, early interventions based on GPA can help address learning gaps before they widen.  

Specifically, the GPA achieved in the 9^th grade is a strong predictor of academic performance later in high school, including:

• GPA in the 11^th grade,  
• enrollment in postsecondary education, and  
• retention in the first year of college.  

High schools also utilize GPA to determine eligibility for advanced courses like Advanced Placement and dual credit programs, and 9^th grade GPA serves as a strong marker for a student’s potential to succeed in advanced coursework. Further, colleges heavily weigh GPA in their decisions regarding admissions, scholarships, and course placements.

While monitoring GPA across all high school years is valuable, focusing attention on tracking ninth-grade GPA enables schools, districts, and states to prioritize early interventions and support systems for students who may be at risk of academic strugglesⁱⁱⁱ.  

Grade 9 attendance and behavior also serve as critical markers for defining and tracking 9^th grade on-track. For additional information on the importance of attendance, behavior, and advanced coursework, visit the Prichard Committee’s Toolkit Issue Areas.

Where to Find the Data

As of 2018, only 9 states publicly reported 9^th grade on-track data^iv. Kentucky has not adopted a definition of 9^th grade on-track, nor does it publicly report 9^th grade GPA data. However, schools do collect course grades regularly that are used for student report cards. Kentucky does report other potential metrics of grade 9 on-track:

• Attendance (Kentucky School Report Card)
• Behavior (Kentucky School Report Card)
• Completion of advanced coursework (Kentucky School Report Card)  

Kentucky does not publicly report data for Advanced Placement potential. However, the College Board provides data accessible for AP coordinators, counselors, high school principals, district officials and state department of education officials. Advanced Placement potential data can be used as a proxy to analyze students’ potential for dual credit (College Board).

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Education and Career Navigation Competencies: What is it and why does it matter?

Education and career navigation competencies are the knowledge, skills, and behaviors that students should master during their K-12 journey so that they are prepared to effectively pursue education and career opportunities after high school.

Why Does It Matter?

To achieve success in post-high school endeavors, all students need the knowledge, skills, and experiences to make informed choices about their futures. When these competencies are absent or disconnected from their K-12 journey, students are often left to wonder “how will my schooling benefit me in the future?” Mastering these competencies after graduation, when decisions about their futures are needed, is too late. While aligning K-12 experiences with postsecondary and career opportunities is important, it is insufficient. Students must also be equipped to make informed choices about their future.

Studies show that individuals who develop education and career navigation knowledge and skills are more likely to:  

·       Have expanded education and career opportunities^v;

·       Make education and career decisions that better fit them^vi;

·       Increase their motivation to learn and achieve^vii; and

·       Experience more positive outcomes in both school and work settings^viii.

Furthermore, as Dan Vitale and ACT highlight in the Education and Career Navigation: Critical for Student Progress and Success brief^ix:

• Those who seek out information about colleges are more likely to enroll in college.
• Those who are intentional about planning for college (e.g., finding
  help with the college application or writing the college essay) are more likely to follow through with the application process required for college admission.
• Those who have career goals are more likely to engage in meaningful planning related to those goals.
• Those who perceive themselves as effective in their decision-making ability are more engaged in career exploration and planning activities during high school.
• Those who have an interest in specific occupations tend to have higher expectations for themselves and more positive work-related attitudes.

It is critical to note that education and career navigation competencies should begin developing well in advance before a student enters high school. For example, engaging in career exploration activities is a precursor to identifying one’s career direction, and limited exploration can delay or impede making informed choices about high school, college, or work^x.  

Where to Find the Data

Kentucky does not publicly report data on the number of students meeting education and career navigation competencies. However, schools and districts should consider how they are incorporating and assessing education and career navigation competencies throughout the K-12 continuum.  

While there are a variety of possible solutions to incorporate and assess education and career navigation competencies, effective implementation of Individual Learning Plans is one potential solution. Beginning in the 2023-2024 school year, students sixth grade and above are required to develop Individual Learning Plans (ILP) focused on career exploration and related to postsecondary education and training needs. Individual learning plans are meant to be comprehensive framework for advising students in grades 6 through 12 to engage in coursework and activities that will best prepare them to realize college and career success and become contributing members of their communities. For more information on Individual Learning Plan requirements and guidance, please visit the Kentucky Department of Education’s ILP Resource Page.  

As schools and districts work to implement and measure progress for education and career navigation competencies, the Education and Career Navigation Framework can serve as a resource. The framework is a comprehensive structure designed to facilitate identification and organization of the knowledge, skills, and other factors needed to help individuals make informed, personally relevant decisions and build actionable, achievable plans.

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Durable Skills Competencies: What is it and why does it matter?

Durable Skills (also known as soft skills) are skills we use to share what we know - like critical thinking, collaboration, or communication - as well as who we are - like fortitude and leadership.  

America Succeeds studied 21st-century skills, human skills, essential skills, and social- emotional learning frameworks to identify 10 competency buckets:

Figure 1

Durable Skills and Competencies

Source: https://americasucceeds.org/policy-priorities/durable-skills

Why Does It Matter?

Among the 885,000 Kentucky job postings and labor market information analyzed by America Succeeds in 2020 and 2021, 74% of Kentucky jobs demanded durable skills. Furthermore, the top 5 durable skills were requested 3.5 times more than the top 5 hard or technical skills. Regardless of industry or profession, Kentucky employers demand durable skills. Many of these durable skills are also necessary for quality-of-life conditions such as social, emotional, and physical well-being^xi.  

Figure 2

America Succeeds Kentucky Analysis

For further insight into Kentucky’s business community demand for durable skills, read the Kentucky Durable Skills Report 2022.

Discrepancies between what skills students believe they should have and what employers actually expect underscore the importance of clearer collaboration between educators, employers, and students^xii. While students acquire various skills through high school courses, work-based learning programs, and in other learning contexts, there's a risk that students may overestimate the value of these skills if employers have different expectations.

Recognizing that success in the labor market demands both core academic competencies and job-related skills, it is crucial to adopt an integrated approach. This requires a learning ecosystem where academic and work-ready skills are not treated as separate components, but rather as interconnected requirements of a student's education journey. By integrating work-ready skills into core academics (and vice versa), schools can better prepare students for the realities of life after school. This is far more likely to happen if there is deep collaboration between the education and business sectors in the design of such an ecosystem.

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Where to Find the Data

While Kentucky does not collect data on durable skills competencies, the Kentucky Department of Education and some local school districts are studying best practices for defining and measuring competencies related to durable skills. One such example is Carter County School District’s effort to develop personalized learner profiles based on the ten durable skills competencies (link to MD Groundswell Spotlight page).  

Kentucky also includes core durable skills competency requirements as part of the Kentucky Essential Skills legislation passed in 2019. While it is unclear how local districts have implemented the requirements established in the law, the Kentucky Department of Education does provide guidance on integrating essential skills in schools here: Career Studies Standards.  

Many school districts across Kentucky are also in various stages of developing and implementing local Portraits of a Learner. These portraits focus on ensuring that students develop the specific knowledge, skills and dispositions necessary for success in their academic, personal and professional lives. While portraits of a learner do not encompass all the durable skills competencies listed above, effective implementation of a Portrait of a Learner has the potential to be a useful tool that supports the development of durable skills competencies. The Kentucky Department of Education provides guidance on developing competencies, performance outcomes, and indicators for a Portrait of a Learner.

Cross-sector organizations at the national level are also working to define durable skills competencies and benchmarks. The Durable Skills Advantage Framework is one example^xiii. While the Durable Skills Advantage Framework Starter Edition was designed to evaluate the durable skills of early career individuals (individuals who are just starting out in the workforce), it does provide an informative look into each durable skill domain and the needed benchmarks for applying the skills in workforce settings.  

Theory of Action

We believe, at a minimum, that

IF students are on track to succeed in their 9^th grade year,

AND IF students have the skills and abilities to navigate their education-to-career pathway,

AND IF students possess durable skills competencies that allow students to problem solve, think critically, communicate, collaborate, and have agency,

THEN...Kentucky high school students will be more likely to graduate high school college and career ready, seamlessly transition to and through postsecondary education, and enter the workforce with credentials of value that pay a family-sustaining wage.