Forecast Trajectory: An Overview
Using the historical data obtained from the Kentucky Department of Education (KDE) School Report Card Suite, our forecast trends are generated with the "Forecast Sheet" function in Excel.
The "Forecast Sheet" in Excel function uses the Holt-Winters Model, or Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) method, to generate forecast trends. Exponential smoothing is a commonly used statistical method for time series forecasting, and it works by assigning exponentially decreasing weights to older data points. This allows the forecast to adapt to recent trends while also incorporating historical data.
The settings used for generating these forecasts are as follows:
- Forecast Start and End Dates: The forecast starts from the academic year 2023-2024 and extends to 2026-2027.
- Confidence Interval: A 95% confidence interval is applied to the forecast, which provides a range within which future data points are likely to fall with a high degree of confidence.
- Fill Missing Points: Missing data points are filled using interpolation to ensure a smooth and continuous trend line.
- Aggregate Duplicates: Duplicate data points are aggregated using averages to reduce redundancy and improve the accuracy of the forecast.
- Evaluate Forecast Accuracy: Excel provides the following forecast key performance indicators (KPIs) to serve as measures of accuracy or performance of the forecast model.
- Alpha, Beta, Gamma (Smoothing Parameters)
- MASE (Mean Absolute Scaled Error)
- SMAPE (Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error)
- MAE (Mean Absolute Error)
- RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error)
- For more information on forecast KPIs, please visit the following resources: Time Series Forecasting for Issuance of Alien Employment Permits by Nationality in the Philippines Using Holt-Winters Method | IEEE Conference Publication | IEEE Xplore (uky.edu)
Data Outcome: Kindergarten Readiness
Figure 1
Historical Data and Forecast Trend of Kindergarten Readiness – Ready with Enrichments – in Kentucky
Source: KYSTATS Early Childhood Profile
Figure 2
Historical Data and Forecast Trend of Kindergarten Readiness – Ready – in Kentucky
Source: KYSTATS Early Childhood Profile
Figure 3
Historical Data and Forecast Trend of Kindergarten Readiness – Ready and Ready with Enrichments – in Kentucky
Source: KYSTATS Early Childhood Profile
Figure 4
Historical Data and Forecast Trend of Kindergarten Readiness – Ready with Interventions – in Kentucky
Source: KYSTATS Early Childhood Profile
Forecast Accuracy
Download: Early Childhood Forecast
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