Forecast Trajectory: An Overview
- Using the historical data obtained from the Kentucky Department of Education (KDE) School Report Card Suite, our forecast trends are generated with the "Forecast Sheet" function in Excel.
- The "Forecast Sheet" in Excel function uses the Holt-Winters Model, or Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) method to generate forecast trends. Exponential smoothing is a commonly used statistical method for time series forecasting, and it works by assigning exponentially decreasing weights to older data points. This allows the forecast to adapt to recent trends while also incorporating historical data.
- The settings used for generating these forecasts are as follows:
- Forecast Start and End Dates: The forecast starts from the academic year 2023-2024 and extends to 2026-2027.
- Confidence Interval: A 95% confidence interval is applied to the forecast, which provides a range within which future data points are likely to fall with a high degree of confidence.
- Fill Missing Points: Missing data points are filled using interpolation to ensure a smooth and continuous trend line.
- Aggregate Duplicates: Duplicate data points are aggregated using averages to reduce redundancy and improve the accuracy of the forecast.
- Evaluate Forecast Accuracy: Excel provides the following forecast key performance indicators (KPIs) to serve as measures of accuracy or performance of the forecast model.
- Alpha, Beta, Gamma (Smoothing Parameters)
- MASE (Mean Absolute Scaled Error)
- SMAPE (Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error)
- MAE (Mean Absolute Error)
- RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error)
- For more information on forecast KPIs, please visit the following resources:
Data Outcome #1: 4-Year High School Graduation Rate
Figure 1
4-Year High School Graduation Rates in Kentucky: Historical Data and Forecast Trend
Source: Kentucky Department of Education (KDE) School Report Card
KDE releases 2022-2023 Kentucky School Report Card data – Kentucky Teacher
Data Outcome #2: College-Going Rate
Figure 2
College-Going Rates in Kentucky: Historical Data and Forecast Trend
Source: Kentucky Department of Education (KDE) School Report Card, KYSTATS High School Feedback Report
Data Outcome #3: Postsecondary Degree Attainment (Ages 25 – 64)
Figure 3.1
Postsecondary Degree Attainment in Kentucky – Some College, No Credential: Historical Data and Forecast Trend
Source: Lumina Foundation A Stronger Nation Report
Figure 3.2
Postsecondary Degree Attainment in Kentucky – Workforce-Related Certificate: Historical Data and Forecast Trend
Source: Lumina Foundation A Stronger Nation Report
Figure 3.3
Postsecondary Degree Attainment in Kentucky – Industry-Recognized Certification: Historical Data and Forecast Trend
Source: Lumina Foundation A Stronger Nation Report
Figure 3.4
Postsecondary Degree Attainment in Kentucky – Associate Degree: Historical Data and Forecast Trend
Source: Lumina Foundation A Stronger Nation Report
Figure 3.5
Postsecondary Degree Attainment in Kentucky – Bachelor’s Degree: Historical Data and Forecast Trend
Source: Lumina Foundation A Stronger Nation Report
Figure 3.6
Postsecondary Degree Attainment in Kentucky – Bachelor’s Degree: Historical Data and Forecast Trend
Source: Lumina Foundation A Stronger Nation Report
Figure 3.7
Postsecondary Degree Attainment in Kentucky – Associate Degree or Above: Historical Data and Forecast Trend
Source: Lumina Foundation A Stronger Nation Report
Data Outcome #4: Workforce (Labor Force) Participation Rate
Figure 4
Labor Force Participation Rate for Kentucky, Percent, Seasonally Adjusted: Historical Data and Forecast Trend
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Forecast Accuracy and Model Performance
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